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Alert Glossary

Plain-English definitions for every fantasy alert, including exact thresholds and what each signal does — and does not — mean.

These are form signals, not identity labels.

Every alert in this system is based on what a player has done in the last 7–14 days, not who they are as a player. Francisco Lindor is always fast — but he only fires Speed Threat during the specific windows where he has stolen 2+ bases in the past 14 days. A slow player who steals 2 bases in a hot stretch will trigger the same alert.

Think of each alert as answering the question: "Is this player doing this specific thing at an elevated rate right now?" — not "Is this player the type of player who does this?"

All 13 alerts were validated at p < 0.001 across 97,679 batter game-logs and 39,125 pitcher game-logs from the 2024–2025 MLB seasons. DK impact figures represent the average DraftKings points above the season baseline for games where the alert was active.

Batter Alerts

(6 signals)
💥

Power Surge

Batter

This batter has hit 2 or more home runs in the last 7 games.

Exact threshold
≥ 2 HR in the last 7 days
What it means

The player is in an elevated power phase right now. Batters in this window hit home runs at a 35% higher rate than their baseline and average +0.95 DraftKings points above their season norm. This is the strongest single batter signal in the system.

What it is not

It does not mean the player is a power hitter by nature. A contact hitter who happens to have 2 HR this week will trigger it just as readily as a 40-HR slugger. The signal is about current form, not identity.

+0.95 DK pts above baseline (strongest batter signal)
Example

Francisco Lindor is primarily a contact/speed player. If he hits 2 HR in a 7-day stretch, he fires Power Surge — not because he is suddenly a power threat, but because something about his swing or the matchups this week is producing elevated power output.

🔥

Hot + Power

Batter

This batter has 4+ hits in the last 5 games AND at least 1 HR in the last 7.

Exact threshold
≥ 4 H in last 5 games AND ≥ 1 HR in last 7 games
What it means

The player is hitting for both average and power simultaneously — the most complete hot streak signal. Batters in this window average +0.73 DK pts above baseline. This is the recommended primary alert for daily lineup construction because it combines two independent momentum signals.

What it is not

A player can be on a pure hit streak without this alert (they need the HR component too). A player can also have a HR without this alert (they need the hit volume too). Both conditions must be active at the same time.

+0.73 DK pts above baseline
Example

A shortstop going 8-for-20 over 5 games with a HR in that stretch fires this alert. The same shortstop going 8-for-20 with no HR does not.

📈

Multi-Hit Momentum

Batter

This batter has recorded 2+ hits in a single game at least twice in the last 5 games.

Exact threshold
≥ 2 multi-hit games in the last 5 games
What it means

The player is making consistent hard contact and getting on base repeatedly. Multi-hit games are the clearest indicator of a batter seeing the ball well. Players in this window hit .233 vs. .203 baseline and average +0.68 DK pts above norm.

What it is not

This is not about hit streaks (consecutive games with a hit). A player can have a 10-game hit streak with single hits each game and not trigger this. The signal specifically requires multi-hit performances — quality of contact, not just presence.

+0.68 DK pts above baseline
Example

A player who goes 2-for-4, 1-for-3, 3-for-4, 1-for-4, 2-for-3 over 5 games fires this alert (2 multi-hit games). A player who goes 1-for-4 five times in a row does not, even though he has a 5-game hit streak.

Speed Threat

Batter

This batter has stolen 2 or more bases in the last 14 games.

Exact threshold
≥ 2 SB in the last 14 games
What it means

The player is actively running and succeeding on the bases right now. This is a form signal, not a career label. Players in this window average +0.66 DK pts above baseline and have a meaningfully elevated stolen base rate for the current period.

What it is not

This does not mean the player is fast or a base-stealing specialist. Francisco Lindor is always fast — but he only fires Speed Threat when he has actually stolen 2+ bases in the past two weeks. A slow player who happens to swipe 2 bags in a hot stretch will also trigger it. The alert is about recent execution, not athleticism.

+0.66 DK pts above baseline
Example

Lindor steals 30+ bases a season, but he only fires Speed Threat during the specific 14-day windows where he has 2+ steals. Outside those windows, the alert is off — even though his speed hasn't changed. The signal is: he is running aggressively and successfully right now.

🌡

Hot Streak

Batter

This batter has recorded 5 or more hits across his last 5 games.

Exact threshold
≥ 5 H in the last 5 games (1+ hit per game, minimum)
What it means

The player is getting on base consistently — at least one hit per game over a 5-game stretch, totaling 5+ hits. This is the broadest momentum signal. Players in this window average +0.57 DK pts above baseline and hit .230 vs. .203 baseline.

What it is not

This is the weakest of the six batter alerts (+0.57 pts). It fires frequently — roughly 20% of qualifying appearances — so it is best used as a supporting signal alongside stronger alerts rather than as a standalone trigger.

+0.57 DK pts above baseline (weakest batter signal, but most frequent)
Example

A player going 1-1-1-1-1 (one hit each game) over 5 games fires Hot Streak. A player going 3-0-0-0-0 (3 hits in game 1, none after) does not, even though he has 3 hits in 5 games.

LH Platoon Edge

Batter

This left-handed batter is facing a right-handed starting pitcher today.

Exact threshold
Batter throws left AND opposing starter throws right
What it means

Left-handed batters have a structural advantage against right-handed pitchers due to the angle of pitch release and the direction of breaking balls. This is a persistent background signal — it is always 'on' for LH batters facing RH starters. It produces a modest +0.25 DK pts advantage.

What it is not

Unlike the other five batter alerts, this is not a form signal — it does not reflect anything the player has done recently. It is a structural matchup condition. Think of it as a background multiplier rather than a hot-hand indicator. It is most valuable when it stacks with a form-based alert.

+0.25 DK pts above baseline (weakest signal, but always active for LH vs. RH matchups)
Example

A left-handed batter facing a right-handed starter always carries this label. If he also has a Hot Streak active, both alerts appear together — the combination is more meaningful than either alone.

Pitcher Alerts

(7 signals)
👑

Composite Ace

Pitcher

This pitcher meets all three elite criteria simultaneously: high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and a strong quality start history.

Exact threshold
K/9 > 9.0 AND BB/9 < 2.5 AND Quality Start rate > 50%
What it means

This is the rarest and most powerful signal in the entire system — a +8.75 DK pts advantage over baseline. Pitchers in this window average 23.94 DK pts per start with a 63.5% quality start rate. It fires on fewer than 1% of all starts, so when it appears, it is the lead story for that game.

What it is not

Not every elite pitcher fires this alert every start. A top pitcher who has had a rough stretch and let his QS rate drop below 50% will not trigger it. Conversely, a mid-tier pitcher who is currently in a dominant run could trigger it if all three thresholds are met.

+8.75 DK pts above baseline (strongest signal in the entire system)
Example

A pitcher with a 10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 58% QS rate fires Composite Ace. The same pitcher after a rough month where his QS rate drops to 45% does not — even though his raw stuff hasn't changed.

🌀

K Surge

Pitcher

This pitcher has averaged 7 or more strikeouts per start over his last 3 outings.

Exact threshold
Average ≥ 7 K/start over the last 3 starts
What it means

The pitcher is in a dominant strikeout phase right now. This is the most actionable rolling pitcher signal — a +4.53 DK pts advantage. Pitchers in this window average 6.01 K/start and a 47.5% quality start rate. It captures pitchers who are 'locked in' with their stuff.

What it is not

A pitcher who averages 7 K/game over a full season but had a quiet last 3 starts (say, 5-5-6 K) will not fire this alert. The signal is specifically about recent form, not season-long ability.

+4.53 DK pts above baseline
Example

A pitcher posts 8, 9, and 7 K in his last three starts (avg 8.0) — K Surge fires. The same pitcher follows up with starts of 5, 4, and 6 K (avg 5.0) — the alert turns off, even though he is the same pitcher.

🎯

High K/9

Pitcher

This pitcher's season strikeout rate exceeds 9.0 per 9 innings.

Exact threshold
Season K/9 > 9.0
What it means

This is a season-level ability signal — the pitcher has elite strikeout stuff over a full sample. Pitchers in this tier average +3.34 DK pts above baseline and 5.93 K/start. Unlike K Surge (which is a rolling form signal), this reflects sustained dominance.

What it is not

A pitcher who had a 10 K/9 last season but is at 8.5 this year does not fire this alert. It is based on current-season K/9, not career numbers.

+3.34 DK pts above baseline
Example

A starter sitting at 9.8 K/9 for the current season fires High K/9 every start, regardless of recent form. It is a persistent background signal for elite strikeout pitchers.

Deep Game

Pitcher

This pitcher has averaged 6 or more innings per start over his last 3 outings.

Exact threshold
Average ≥ 6 IP/start over the last 3 starts
What it means

The pitcher is going deep into games consistently, which produces more counting stats (K, outs) and a higher floor for DFS scoring. Pitchers in this window average +2.93 DK pts above baseline with a 48.5% quality start rate.

What it is not

This is not about strikeout rate or ERA — a contact pitcher who consistently works 7-inning outings can fire this alert even without elite stuff. It is purely about innings pitched.

+2.93 DK pts above baseline
Example

A ground-ball pitcher who goes 7, 6.1, and 6.2 innings in his last three starts (avg 6.5 IP) fires Deep Game. A power pitcher who goes 5, 5.1, and 5.2 innings (avg 5.2 IP) does not, even if he struck out 10 in each.

QS Streak

Pitcher

This pitcher has recorded a quality start (6+ IP, 3 or fewer ER) in at least 2 of his last 3 outings.

Exact threshold
≥ 2 quality starts in the last 3 starts
What it means

The pitcher is consistently delivering reliable outings — the definition of a 'safe' DFS play. Pitchers in this window average +2.52 DK pts above baseline with a 47.8% QS rate. This is the consistency signal.

What it is not

A pitcher can have a great ERA but still not fire this alert if he is pitching shorter outings (e.g., 5 IP, 1 ER — good ERA, not a quality start). The threshold is specifically 6+ IP with 3 or fewer ER.

+2.52 DK pts above baseline
Example

A pitcher goes QS, non-QS (4 IP, 4 ER), QS in his last three starts — 2 of 3 are quality starts, so the alert fires. A pitcher goes QS, QS, non-QS — also fires (2 of 3). A pitcher goes non-QS, non-QS, QS — does not fire (only 1 of 3).

🎯

Command

Pitcher

This pitcher's season walk rate is below 2.5 per 9 innings.

Exact threshold
Season BB/9 < 2.5
What it means

The pitcher throws strikes consistently and rarely gives away free baserunners. Low walk rate is a strong predictor of pitching success because it limits traffic on the bases. Pitchers in this tier average +2.15 DK pts above baseline.

What it is not

This is a season-level signal, not a rolling form signal. A pitcher who is normally wild but has had 3 clean outings recently will not fire this — his season BB/9 is still elevated. Conversely, a command pitcher who has a few rough outings recently still fires this as long as his season rate stays below 2.5.

+2.15 DK pts above baseline
Example

A pitcher with a 2.1 BB/9 for the season fires Command every start. If he walks 5 batters in one bad outing and his season rate climbs to 2.6, the alert turns off until he works it back down.

🏠

Home Advantage

Pitcher

This pitcher is starting at home today.

Exact threshold
Pitcher is the home team's starter
What it means

Home starters have a structural advantage — familiar mound, no travel fatigue, and crowd support. This produces a modest +1.66 DK pts advantage. Like the LH Platoon Edge for batters, this is a persistent background condition rather than a form signal.

What it is not

This is the weakest pitcher signal (+1.66 pts) and fires on roughly half of all starts. It is best used as a background multiplier that amplifies other alerts rather than a standalone reason to roster a pitcher.

+1.66 DK pts above baseline (weakest pitcher signal, fires on ~50% of starts)
Example

Any home starter carries this label. Its value is in stacking — a home pitcher who also fires Composite Ace and K Surge has three simultaneous signals pointing in the same direction.

About "vs. opp." stats: The batting average and HR count shown on player cards are career numbers against that specific opposing pitcher — pulled from 61,751 career batter-pitcher split records. They are not the player's overall career statistics.

Alert stacking: When multiple alerts fire simultaneously, the effects are additive. A batter with Power Surge + Hot Streak + LH Platoon Edge active at the same time is meaningfully more elevated than any single alert alone.